<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Scenario modeling &#8211; Sarah Schlott</title>
	<atom:link href="https://sarahgschlott.com/tag/scenario-modeling/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>https://sarahgschlott.com</link>
	<description>FP&#38;A Insights</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Thu, 14 Aug 2025 04:47:34 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en-US</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>
	hourly	</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>
	1	</sy:updateFrequency>
	

<image>
	<url>https://sarahgschlott.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/cropped-ChatGPT-Image-May-13-2025-07_00_01-PM-1-1-1-32x32.png</url>
	<title>Scenario modeling &#8211; Sarah Schlott</title>
	<link>https://sarahgschlott.com</link>
	<width>32</width>
	<height>32</height>
</image> 
	<item>
		<title>Excel Is Dead: FP&#038;A Team Now Builds Models in PowerPoint</title>
		<link>https://sarahgschlott.com/excel-is-dead-fpa-team-now-builds-models-in-powerpoint/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=excel-is-dead-fpa-team-now-builds-models-in-powerpoint</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sarah Schlott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jun 2025 03:45:22 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Excel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BI Tools]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision-making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance Leadership]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FP&A team]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Modernization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PowerPoint]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario modeling]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sarahgschlott.com/?p=4637</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[It started, as most modern corporate absurdities do, with a single sentence in a leadership Slack thread: &#8220;Do we really need Excel for this?&#8221; Cue the floodgates. Someone (from Marketing, naturally) posted a Medium think piece on how &#8220;spreadsheets are a relic of the past.&#8221; Someone else chimed in about their nephew using Notion for [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">It started, as most modern corporate absurdities do, with a single sentence in a leadership Slack thread: &#8220;Do we really need <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/top-10-principles-for-transforming-fpa-towards-long-term-value-creation/">Excel</a> for this?&#8221;</p>
<p>Cue the floodgates.</p>
<p>Someone (from Marketing, naturally) posted a Medium think piece on how &#8220;spreadsheets are a relic of the past.&#8221; Someone else chimed in about their nephew using Notion for budgets. The COO asked if Tableau could just &#8220;handle the modeling.&#8221;</p>
<p>By the end of the week, the company’s FP&amp;A team was politely asked to &#8220;explore modernizing their toolset.&#8221;</p>
<p>The punchline? Within three weeks, the team was building their models—<em>in <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/top-10-principles-for-transforming-fpa-towards-long-term-value-creation/">PowerPoint</a></em>.</p>
<p>And as ridiculous as that sounds, the story holds a mirror up to what I see happening across a lot of <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">finance</a> teams today.</p>
<p>So let’s break it down.</p>
<h2>The Setup: Death by a Thousand &#8220;Modernization&#8221; Initiatives</h2>
<p>The company? A well-funded Series D SaaS unicorn.</p>
<p>The FP&amp;A team? Smart. Experienced. Strong modeling chops.</p>
<p>The problem? Leadership had developed a collective allergy to anything that looked “old school.&#8221;</p>
<p>It started innocently enough:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>The CFO wanted more &#8220;visually engaging&#8221; outputs for board decks.</li>
<li>The CRO complained that Excel models &#8220;weren’t collaborative enough.&#8221;</li>
<li>The CEO’s chief of staff suggested that &#8220;modern finance teams use dynamic dashboards.&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<p>Pretty soon, Excel was on life support.</p>
<h2>The Shift: From Models to Slides</h2>
<p>Here’s how it actually played out:</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Stage</th>
<th>What Happened</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>&#8220;Modernization&#8221; kickoff</td>
<td>FP&amp;A told to explore tools</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tool evaluation</td>
<td>BI tools couldn’t handle modeling complexity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Quick workaround</td>
<td>Started building simplified <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">assumptions</a> in PowerPoint tables</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Full collapse</td>
<td>Finance leadership started requesting &#8220;final&#8221; models directly in slide format</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>By month three? Entire operating models were being built in <em>PowerPoint tables</em>. Yes, with manual calculations. Yes, copy-pasted. Yes, with version control managed via email chains.</p>
<p>And yes, it was a disaster.</p>
<h2>The Warning Signs: How to Know You’re on This Path</h2>
<p>I’ve seen this happen more than once. Here are the telltale signs:</p>
<h3>1. Leadership starts optimizing for presentation over accuracy</h3>
<p>When the primary feedback on your <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">model</a> is &#8220;Can we make this chart more on-brand?&#8221;</p>
<h3>2. Decision-makers stop engaging with model drivers</h3>
<p>If you hear &#8220;Just show me the summary slide,&#8221; you’re already in the danger zone.</p>
<h3>3. BI tools are treated as replacements for modeling</h3>
<p>Dashboards are great. But they’re not <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">scenario</a> engines.</p>
<h3>4. Finance gets pushed to deliver in &#8220;collaborative formats&#8221;</h3>
<p>Translation: Formats that are easy to screenshot, not formats that are built for <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">decision-making</a>.</p>
<h3>5. Operators start bypassing Finance for modeling</h3>
<p>Because the Finance outputs are now too sanitized to be useful.</p>
<h2>Why This Happens: The Seduction of the Pretty Deck</h2>
<p>The truth? A gorgeous slide deck is seductive. It makes the numbers feel polished. Digestible. Safe.</p>
<p>But the second you lose visibility into what’s driving those numbers, you’re flying blind.</p>
<p>As one FP&amp;A lead put it to me: &#8220;We went from pilots to flight attendants. Smiling, serving up pre-packaged metrics, but not flying the plane anymore.&#8221;</p>
<h2>What’s Lost: The Real Cost of Killing Excel</h2>
<p>Here’s what the company actually lost in this shift:</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Capability</td>
<td>Lost Outcome</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dynamic scenario modeling</td>
<td>No fast pivoting on new assumptions</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Driver-based <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-hidden-edge-why-growing-companies-need-fpa-before-they-think-they-do/">forecasting</a></td>
<td>Static, high-level projections</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sensitivity analysis</td>
<td>Gut-feel decision-making</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Version control with audit trail</td>
<td>Conflicting slide decks</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Operator engagement in modeling</td>
<td><a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">Operators</a> building their own side models</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>In short? Finance ceded its seat at the strategy table.</p>
<h2>The Underlying Issue: Misunderstanding What Modeling Is <em>For</em></h2>
<p>Too many leadership teams think modeling is about producing a pretty number.</p>
<p>It’s not. It’s about:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Testing assumptions</li>
<li>Understanding sensitivities</li>
<li>Driving tradeoff decisions</li>
<li>Preparing for uncertainty</li>
</ul>
<p>And guess what? You can’t do that in PowerPoint.</p>
<h2>A Better Way: Modernize <em>How</em> You Use Excel, Not <em>Whether</em></h2>
<p>I’m not anti-modernization. I teach teams how to do this the right way.</p>
<p>Here’s how:</p>
<h3>1. Clean up your models</h3>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Use Power Query to automate <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">data</a> pulls</li>
<li>Structure models for transparency and flexibility</li>
<li>Build scenario engines, not static forecasts</li>
</ul>
<h3>2. Separate calculation layer from presentation layer</h3>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Do the modeling in Excel (or your modeling tool of choice)</li>
<li>Drive the outputs into dashboards or board decks</li>
</ul>
<h3>3. Train leadership on how to engage with models</h3>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Teach them to ask: &#8220;What’s driving this? What are the assumptions? What’s the sensitivity?&#8221;</li>
</ul>
<h3>4. Protect core modeling time</h3>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Don’t let Finance become a slide factory</li>
<li>Guard time for actual analysis and decision prep</li>
</ul>
<h2>Why This Matters: In Uncertainty, Speed of Insight Wins</h2>
<p>Here’s the punchline:</p>
<p>The company I’m talking about? When the market turned six months later, they were caught flat-footed.</p>
<p>They couldn’t run new scenarios fast enough. They didn’t know which levers to pull. Operators stopped trusting the Finance numbers.</p>
<p>Eventually? They quietly rebuilt the Excel models. But by then, the credibility damage was done.</p>
<h2>Don’t Throw Out the Toolbox</h2>
<p>This article took real time to write because I want more CFOs and operators to see through the &#8220;modernization theater&#8221; that’s infecting too many Finance teams.</p>
<p>If you found value in it, please share.</p>
<p>And if you want to go deeper—whether it’s modernizing your modeling stack, building faster scenario engines, or up-leveling your team’s strategic impact—I offer 1:1 consulting for Finance pros ready to level up. DM me if you want to talk.</p>
<p>And I’ll leave you with this question:</p>
<p><strong>If your board asked for three new downside scenarios today—could your team deliver by end of week?</strong></p>
<p>If that makes you sweat—it’s time to fix it.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>One Thing I’d Change About How Finance Functions Are Structured Today</title>
		<link>https://sarahgschlott.com/one-thing-id-change-about-how-finance-functions-are-structured-today/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=one-thing-id-change-about-how-finance-functions-are-structured-today</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sarah Schlott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Jun 2025 00:36:05 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[FP&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boardrooms / board]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CFO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Data pipelines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision support]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance business partner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance function]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FP&A analysts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operators]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario modeling]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic finance]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sarahgschlott.com/?p=4632</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I’ll say it: most finance teams are built to report on the business, not to drive it. That’s the one thing I’d change. Too many functions are still structured like it’s 2003—hierarchies built to deliver variance reports and close books, not to influence what actually happens next. I’ve worked inside these teams. I’ve consulted for [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">I’ll say it: most <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">finance</a> teams are built to <em>report</em> on the business, not to <em>drive</em> it.</p>
<p>That’s the one thing I’d change.</p>
<p>Too many functions are still structured like it’s 2003—hierarchies built to deliver variance reports and close books, not to influence what actually happens next.</p>
<p>I’ve worked inside these teams. I’ve consulted for them. And here’s what happens:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>The monthly close gets faster—but no one knows what’s driving the numbers.</li>
<li>The dashboards get flashier—but the models don’t drive decisions.</li>
<li>The headcount grows—but the impact doesn’t.</li>
</ul>
<p>The result? A finance function that’s technically sound and strategically irrelevant.</p>
<p>It doesn’t have to be that way. In fact, the best CFOs I work with are already rebuilding their functions—from reporting centers into operating partners.</p>
<p>Here’s what I’d change—and how to do it.</p>
<h2>The Problem: Reporting-Centric Structures Kill Agility</h2>
<p>Most finance orgs today are built around this flow:</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Stage</th>
<th>Owner</th>
<th>Goal</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">Data</a> collection</td>
<td>Accounting</td>
<td>Accurate close</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Reporting</td>
<td>FP&amp;A analysts</td>
<td>Timely variance reports</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Board prep</td>
<td>CFO/Controller</td>
<td>Align board metrics</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Insights</td>
<td>??? (no owner)</td>
<td>Often missing or ad hoc</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Action</td>
<td>Business leads</td>
<td>Disconnected from Finance</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>You see the gap, right?</p>
<p><strong>Insights and action are afterthoughts.</strong></p>
<p>Everyone’s busy closing books and building decks. But no one owns connecting the numbers to decisions.</p>
<p>That’s the structural flaw I’d fix first.</p>
<h2>The Shift: From Reporting Factory to Decision Support Engine</h2>
<p>If I were designing a modern finance org from scratch, here’s how I’d structure it:</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Team/Function</td>
<td>Primary Mission</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Core Accounting</td>
<td>Accurate, timely close</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Data Engineering</td>
<td>Clean, automated data pipelines</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>FP&amp;A Analysts</td>
<td>Business modeling + <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">scenario</a> design</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Finance Business Partners</td>
<td>Drive insights into decisions</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CFO</td>
<td>Strategic leadership + alignment</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The key shift? <strong>Finance Business Partners as core operators—not reporting clerks.</strong></p>
<h2>Why It Matters: The Speed of Business Has Changed</h2>
<p>When leadership needs to pivot:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Pricing model breaks?</li>
<li><a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">Churn</a> spikes?</li>
<li>New geo opens?</li>
<li>COGS shifts?</li>
</ul>
<p>They can’t wait for a quarterly variance <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">review</a>.</p>
<p>They need Finance in the room <em>before</em> decisions get made—running scenarios, stress-testing <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">assumptions</a>, pressure-testing plans.</p>
<p>And that requires a structure built for it.</p>
<h2>Practical Tips for Building a Modern Finance Org</h2>
<p>Here’s what I’ve seen work in the best finance teams I’ve worked with and consulted for:</p>
<h3>1. Split Reporting vs. Decision Support</h3>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Create clear swim lanes.</li>
<li>Reporting team owns accuracy + timeliness.</li>
<li>Business partners own insights + decision support.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Why:</strong> Different muscles. Different mindsets.</p>
<p><strong>A quick story:</strong> One client had a talented FP&amp;A analyst who built gorgeous decks. But they kept getting sidelined in pricing discussions. Why? Because leadership saw them as a “reporting resource.” We restructured. Moved them into the business partnering team. Within one quarter, they were leading pricing scenario discussions—not just reporting on them. One shift in role framing changed their strategic impact.</p>
<h3>2. Build Data Pipelines That Scale</h3>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Invest in Power Query or BI tools early.</li>
<li>Automate routine data prep.</li>
<li>Free analysts to model, not clean data.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Why:</strong> Analysts stuck in spreadsheet purgatory can’t be strategic.</p>
<h3>3. Push Finance Closer to Operators</h3>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Embed business partners with key leaders.</li>
<li>Have them attend product, marketing, sales reviews.</li>
<li>Tie their performance to <em>business outcomes</em>, not just reporting deadlines.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Why:</strong> Proximity = relevance.</p>
<h3>4. Train Analysts to Think Like Operators</h3>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Teach them to ask: “So what?” and “Now what?”</li>
<li>Focus on implications and options, not just accuracy.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Why:</strong> CFOs don’t promote number crunchers. They promote decision influencers.</p>
<h3>5. Invest in Modeling as a Core Skill</h3>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Build a modeling academy internally.</li>
<li>Focus on <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/top-10-principles-for-transforming-fpa-towards-long-term-value-creation/">Excel</a> <em>and</em> business modeling.</li>
<li>Teach dynamic scenario planning.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Why:</strong> Fast, flexible modeling is what makes Finance indispensable.</p>
<h2>One Example: A $75M SaaS Company I Worked With</h2>
<p>They had a classic reporting factory. Strong FP&amp;A team—but stuck in the variance-reporting cycle.</p>
<p><a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">Revenue</a> growth had plateaued. Board was frustrated.</p>
<p>We restructured:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Split reporting vs. decision support teams.</li>
<li>Embedded Finance partners with product and GTM.</li>
<li>Automated core data prep.</li>
<li>Trained analysts to drive scenario modeling.</li>
</ul>
<p>Result? Within two quarters:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Time-to-insight dropped by 70%.</li>
<li>Finance became the first team product called when exploring pricing changes.</li>
<li>Board feedback shifted: “Finance is driving strategy now.”</li>
</ul>
<h2>Why CFOs and Operators Should Act Now</h2>
<p>Here’s the risk: If your <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">Finance team</a> is structured like it’s 2003, your operators will build their own shadow models.</p>
<p>That’s how trust erodes. That’s how Finance gets sidelined.</p>
<p>The opportunity? Build Finance as a <strong>decision support engine</strong>:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Trusted.</li>
<li>Fast.</li>
<li>Embedded.</li>
<li>Forward-looking.</li>
</ul>
<p>That’s the model that wins boardrooms today.</p>
<h2>Design for Impact, Not Just Accuracy</h2>
<p>I wrote this because I see too many Finance teams trapped in old structures—and burning out good people trying to keep up.</p>
<p>It doesn’t have to be that way.</p>
<p>You can build a Finance org that’s:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>More accurate.</li>
<li>More agile.</li>
<li>More trusted.</li>
<li>More impactful.</li>
</ul>
<p>But it takes conscious design.</p>
<p>If this article gave you new ways to think about your Finance function, please share it. I put real time into this because I want more CFOs and operators building <strong>modern, trusted, strategic Finance teams</strong>—not just faster reporting factories.</p>
<p>And if you want to go deeper—whether it’s building a better Finance org, sharpening your team’s modeling game, or <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">scaling</a> your own career impact—I offer 1:1 consulting for Finance pros ready to level up. DM me if you want to talk.</p>
<p>And here’s one last question: <strong>If your operators are building their own models—why aren’t they calling Finance first?</strong></p>
<p>If they’re not—it’s time to change that. Now.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			</item>
	</channel>
</rss>
