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	<title>Scenario planning &#8211; Sarah Schlott</title>
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	<title>Scenario planning &#8211; Sarah Schlott</title>
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		<title>2025: How FP&#038;A Teams Are Winning the Seat at the Strategic Table</title>
		<link>https://sarahgschlott.com/2025-how-fpa-teams-are-winning-the-seat-at-the-strategic-table/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=2025-how-fpa-teams-are-winning-the-seat-at-the-strategic-table</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sarah Schlott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Jun 2025 00:55:26 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[FP&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Automation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[capital allocation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cross-functional]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision-making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SaaS CFO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tradeoffs]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sarahgschlott.com/?p=4674</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I’ve been in finance long enough to remember when FP&#38;A was the last to be invited to the big meetings—if we were invited at all. We were the spreadsheet people. The ones who showed up late in the process to confirm what everyone else already decided. That version of FP&#38;A is dying. And in 2025, [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">I’ve been in <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">finance</a> long enough to remember when FP&amp;A was the last to be invited to the big meetings—if we were invited at all. We were the spreadsheet people. The ones who showed up late in the process to confirm what everyone else already decided.</p>
<p>That version of FP&amp;A is dying. And in 2025, it’s finally obvious.</p>
<p>More and more, we’re being asked to lead from the front—not just report the numbers, but shape what the numbers <em>should</em> be. In the best SaaS companies I know, FP&amp;A isn’t a service function. It’s a strategy function. And that shift changes everything.</p>
<p>Here’s what it actually looks like to sit at the strategic table—and how FP&amp;A teams can win that seat and keep it.</p>
<h2>What Strategic FP&amp;A Actually Means</h2>
<p>Let’s get clear: “strategic” isn’t just a new buzzword for doing your same job with fancier charts. Strategic FP&amp;A is:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Helping decide where the company allocates capital</li>
<li>Pressure-testing the <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">assumptions</a> behind major bets</li>
<li>Framing the tradeoffs of product, GTM, and org design decisions</li>
<li>Anticipating risk, not just reacting to it</li>
</ul>
<p>And most importantly: <strong>owning the narrative behind the numbers</strong>.</p>
<p>When finance becomes part of shaping strategy instead of just validating it, you go from reactive to indispensable.</p>
<h2>Why 2025 Is the Tipping Point</h2>
<p>We didn’t get here overnight. But in 2025, a few forces are converging:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li><strong>AI &amp; automation</strong> are killing rote tasks. No more spending 4 days consolidating spreadsheets.</li>
<li><strong>Boards and CEOs</strong> are demanding <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">scenario</a> agility, not just historical reporting.</li>
<li><strong>Cross-functional collaboration</strong> is the new default. FP&amp;A is embedded in product, GTM, and operations.</li>
</ul>
<p>We’re not just reporting. We’re framing decisions.</p>
<h2>Table: Old FP&amp;A vs. Strategic FP&amp;A</h2>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Aspect</th>
<th>Old FP&amp;A</th>
<th>Strategic FP&amp;A</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Role in planning</td>
<td>Inputs numbers</td>
<td>Shapes scenarios and tradeoffs</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Focus</td>
<td><a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">Budget</a> vs. actuals</td>
<td>ROI, risk, and capital allocation</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Reporting cadence</td>
<td>Monthly close + variance</td>
<td>Rolling forecasts with real-time signals</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tools</td>
<td><a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/top-10-principles-for-transforming-fpa-towards-long-term-value-creation/">Excel</a>, manual reports</td>
<td>Integrated systems, BI, automation</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Stakeholder relationship</td>
<td>Reactive, service-oriented</td>
<td>Embedded, proactive, cross-functional</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2>How to Know You’re Earning a Strategic Seat</h2>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>You’re in the room <em>before</em> key decisions are made</li>
<li>Leaders ask you what <em>you</em> think, not just for the <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">model</a></li>
<li>You help define what success looks like, not just measure it</li>
<li>Your function is hiring for communication, not just Excel skills</li>
</ul>
<h2>Bullet Points: What Strategic FP&amp;A Leaders Do Differently</h2>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Challenge assumptions, not just check math</li>
<li>Translate financial risk into operational levers</li>
<li>Model outcomes, not just expenses</li>
<li>Communicate tradeoffs in plain language</li>
<li>Connect financial insights to customer impact</li>
</ul>
<h2>A Lesson That Changed My Thinking</h2>
<p>In a cross-functional planning session a few years ago, I watched as marketing, product, and sales all proposed plans that added up to far more headcount than we had <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">runway</a> for.</p>
<p>Nobody had done anything wrong—they were just building in silos.</p>
<p>I stepped back and reframed the conversation. Not just &#8220;what can we afford,&#8221; but: what bets are truly worth making? Where is the momentum? What’s the <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">cost</a> of not hiring now?</p>
<p>That meeting wasn’t about budget cuts. It was about focus.</p>
<p>We ended up reallocating 25% of planned spend to a single initiative that later drove our best quarter ever.</p>
<p>That was the moment I realized: strategy doesn’t mean saying &#8220;no.&#8221;</p>
<p>It means knowing <em>what to say yes to</em>.</p>
<h2>What Keeps FP&amp;A Teams Stuck in the Old Model</h2>
<p>Let’s be honest. Not every team is ready to be strategic. Here are the traps:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li><strong>Over-indexing on perfection:</strong> Strategic FP&amp;A requires fast iteration, not perfect decks.</li>
<li><strong>Worshipping the forecast:</strong> A good model is a tool, not a bible.</li>
<li><strong>Weak communication muscle:</strong> You can’t drive strategy if you can’t tell a compelling story.</li>
<li><strong>Thinking finance-first:</strong> Strategy is multi-lens—customer, product, people, and finance.</li>
</ul>
<p>To lead, you have to speak multiple languages.</p>
<h2>What the Best SaaS CFOs Are Doing Now</h2>
<p>I’ve seen a pattern in CFOs who are truly strategic partners. They:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Build finance teams that <em>embed</em> into the business</li>
<li>Prioritize tech stacks that eliminate low-value work</li>
<li>Hire analysts who think like <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">operators</a></li>
<li>Spend as much time listening as modeling</li>
<li>Frame tradeoffs in terms of growth, not just cost</li>
</ul>
<p>They know that the <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">finance team</a> of the future isn’t in the back office. It’s at the strategy table.</p>
<h2>Final Thought: FP&amp;A Is Evolving. Either We Move With It, or Get Moved Past.</h2>
<p>We’re at a turning point. FP&amp;A is no longer a supporting character. In the best companies, we’re leading the conversation.</p>
<p>But it takes work. And mindset. And humility.</p>
<p>Not every model will be right. Not every assumption will hold. But if we get better at asking the right questions, we’ll earn the seat—and keep it.</p>
<p>That’s the future of finance. And it’s already here.</p>
<div>
<hr />
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
			</item>
		<item>
		<title>2025 FP&#038;A Trends Survey: Insights to Drive Your Strategy</title>
		<link>https://sarahgschlott.com/2025-fpa-trends-survey-insights-to-drive-your-strategy/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=2025-fpa-trends-survey-insights-to-drive-your-strategy</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sarah Schlott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Jun 2025 15:58:30 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[FP&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AI-driven Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Automation in finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cross-functional strategy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance transformation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FP&A trends]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictive Analytics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real-Time Data]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real-time forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic insights]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sarahgschlott.com/?p=4653</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I’m not going to waste your time. You know as well as I do: finance isn’t what it used to be. The quiet back-office role of FP&#38;A, once a sleepy corner of the corporate structure, has turned into a high-stakes battlefield where only the smartest, fastest, and most adaptable survive. The rules have changed, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p data-start="288" data-end="619">I’m not going to waste your time. You know as well as I do: <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">finance</a> isn’t what it used to be. The quiet back-office role of FP&amp;A, once a sleepy corner of the corporate structure, has turned into a high-stakes battlefield where only the smartest, fastest, and most adaptable survive. The rules have changed, and so have the players.</p>
<p data-start="621" data-end="924">I read a survey conducted with finance professionals, CFOs, and <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">operators</a> who are living this new reality every day. The goal was simple: cut through the noise, find out what&#8217;s actually happening in FP&amp;A departments right now, and figure out how to use those <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">insights</a> to drive smarter, sharper strategy.</p>
<p data-start="926" data-end="1147">This isn’t another consultant’s whitepaper full of buzzwords. It&#8217;s the unvarnished truth from the people making the tough calls. What follows is my breakdown of the 2025 FP&amp;A Trends Survey — and what it all means for you.</p>
<h2 data-start="1149" data-end="1172">Why This Matters Now</h2>
<p data-start="1174" data-end="1414">2025 isn’t just another year on the calendar — it’s an inflection point. Rising interest rates, volatile global supply chains, geopolitical tension, and AI-driven disruption are converging to force CFOs and FP&amp;A teams to rethink everything.</p>
<p data-start="1416" data-end="1590">The expectations from boards and investors are clear: faster cycles, deeper insights, and more agile strategies. Finance can no longer afford to be reactive — it has to lead.</p>
<h2 data-start="1592" data-end="1646">FP&amp;A: From Number Crunchers to Strategic Commanders</h2>
<p data-start="1648" data-end="1844">If there’s one thing the <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">data</a> screams, it’s that FP&amp;A teams are no longer the bean counters they once were. They&#8217;re now central players in strategy, risk management, and corporate <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">decision-making</a>.</p>
<p data-start="1846" data-end="1870">According to the survey:</p>
<ul data-start="1872" data-end="2100">
<li data-start="1872" data-end="1949">
<p data-start="1874" data-end="1949">78% of CFOs say they rely on FP&amp;A for strategic insights, not just reports.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="1950" data-end="2014">
<p data-start="1952" data-end="2014">65% said that real-time forecasting has become non-negotiable.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="2015" data-end="2100">
<p data-start="2017" data-end="2100">52% are shifting FP&amp;A’s role from reactive analysis to proactive <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">scenario</a> planning.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p data-start="2102" data-end="2256">Translation? You can’t just &#8220;report the numbers&#8221; anymore. You have to own the numbers. Command them. Tell the story before the CEO even asks the question.</p>
<p data-start="2258" data-end="2475">One FP&amp;A leader at a global manufacturing firm put it this way: <em data-start="2322" data-end="2475">“If I’m not showing up to the weekly ops leadership call with insights, I’m irrelevant. They’re expecting me to drive the conversation, not follow it.”</em></p>
<h2 data-start="2477" data-end="2506">Automation Is Table Stakes</h2>
<p data-start="2508" data-end="2678">I’ll put it bluntly: if your team is still using manual spreadsheets for <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">budget</a> cycles, you’re about two cycles away from irrelevance. Automation isn’t coming. It’s here.</p>
<p data-start="2680" data-end="2716">Table: FP&amp;A Technology Adoption 2025</p>
<div class="_tableContainer_16hzy_1">
<div class="_tableWrapper_16hzy_14 group flex w-fit flex-col-reverse" tabindex="-1">
<table class="w-fit min-w-(--thread-content-width)" data-start="2718" data-end="2998">
<thead data-start="2718" data-end="2763">
<tr data-start="2718" data-end="2763">
<th data-start="2718" data-end="2746" data-col-size="sm">Technology</th>
<th data-start="2746" data-end="2763" data-col-size="sm">Adoption Rate</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody data-start="2811" data-end="2998">
<tr data-start="2811" data-end="2857">
<td data-start="2811" data-end="2840" data-col-size="sm">Cloud-based Planning Tools</td>
<td data-col-size="sm" data-start="2840" data-end="2857">84%</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="2858" data-end="2904">
<td data-start="2858" data-end="2887" data-col-size="sm">AI-Driven Forecasting</td>
<td data-col-size="sm" data-start="2887" data-end="2904">67%</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="2905" data-end="2951">
<td data-start="2905" data-end="2934" data-col-size="sm">Robotic Process Automation</td>
<td data-col-size="sm" data-start="2934" data-end="2951">59%</td>
</tr>
<tr data-start="2952" data-end="2998">
<td data-start="2952" data-end="2981" data-col-size="sm">Predictive Analytics</td>
<td data-col-size="sm" data-start="2981" data-end="2998">74%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<div class="sticky end-(--thread-content-margin) h-0 self-end select-none">
<div class="absolute end-0 flex items-end"></div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<p data-start="3000" data-end="3220">Operators and CFOs aren’t asking if they should automate — they’re asking how much human intervention they can eliminate without losing insight. The goal isn’t just speed. It’s precision, agility, and, frankly, survival.</p>
<p data-start="3222" data-end="3423">What tools are top performers using? Leaders are betting on platforms like <strong data-start="3297" data-end="3308">Anaplan</strong>, <strong data-start="3310" data-end="3339">Workday Adaptive Planning</strong>, <strong data-start="3341" data-end="3352">Pigment</strong>, and <strong data-start="3358" data-end="3385">AI forecasting bolt-ons</strong> that integrate with ERP and CRM data.</p>
<p data-start="3425" data-end="3481">The gap between leaders and laggards is widening — fast.</p>
<h2 data-start="3483" data-end="3527">Talent: Hire Strategists, Not Technicians</h2>
<p data-start="3529" data-end="3694">The data is ugly for anyone clinging to the old ways. 71% of CFOs said that technical financial skills are now “minimum requirements.” They’re hiring people who can:</p>
<ul data-start="3696" data-end="3881">
<li data-start="3696" data-end="3745">
<p data-start="3698" data-end="3745">Translate complex data into strategic insights.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="3746" data-end="3788">
<p data-start="3748" data-end="3788">Collaborate with cross-functional teams.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="3789" data-end="3825">
<p data-start="3791" data-end="3825">Drive narrative, not just numbers.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="3826" data-end="3881">
<p data-start="3828" data-end="3881">Manage and interpret <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">AI</a> and machine learning outputs.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p data-start="3883" data-end="4059">One CFO I spoke with told me about a failed hire: <em data-start="3933" data-end="4059">“The candidate knew IFRS inside and out but couldn’t explain why our gross margins were shifting. That’s a non-starter now.”</em></p>
<p data-start="4061" data-end="4280">Finance pros today need to think like business operators — comfortable discussing supply chain bottlenecks, marketing CAC trends, and product launch cycles. The best are becoming embedded partners across the enterprise.</p>
<h2 data-start="4282" data-end="4317">Real-Time Data: The New Currency</h2>
<p data-start="4319" data-end="4442">Once upon a time, last quarter’s numbers were enough. Now? CFOs want to see what’s happening right now, today, this minute.</p>
<p data-start="4444" data-end="4468">According to the survey:</p>
<ul data-start="4470" data-end="4683">
<li data-start="4470" data-end="4533">
<p data-start="4472" data-end="4533">82% of finance leaders said they demand real-time dashboards.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="4534" data-end="4587">
<p data-start="4536" data-end="4587">69% are investing in continuous forecasting models.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="4588" data-end="4683">
<p data-start="4590" data-end="4683">58% say decision-making must be based on current operational data, not last month’s snapshot.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p data-start="4685" data-end="4762">What does a best-in-class real-time dashboard look like? CFOs are asking for:</p>
<ul data-start="4764" data-end="4944">
<li data-start="4764" data-end="4794">
<p data-start="4766" data-end="4794">Cash conversion cycle, daily</p>
</li>
<li data-start="4795" data-end="4818">
<p data-start="4797" data-end="4818">Sales funnel velocity</p>
</li>
<li data-start="4819" data-end="4859">
<p data-start="4821" data-end="4859">Real-time COGS impacts by product line</p>
</li>
<li data-start="4860" data-end="4900">
<p data-start="4862" data-end="4900">Inventory days on hand vs sales trends</p>
</li>
<li data-start="4901" data-end="4944">
<p data-start="4903" data-end="4944">Forward-looking working capital forecasts</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p data-start="4946" data-end="5125">Real-time data isn’t a luxury — it’s the <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">cost</a> of admission. Finance must be able to deliver live, operationally relevant insight to the executive table or risk losing credibility.</p>
<h2 data-start="5127" data-end="5171">Scenario Planning: Welcome to Uncertainty</h2>
<p data-start="5173" data-end="5304">If the pandemic taught us anything, it’s that certainty is a fantasy. The best FP&amp;A teams are embracing this fact, not fighting it.</p>
<p data-start="5306" data-end="5316">Key stats:</p>
<ul data-start="5318" data-end="5600">
<li data-start="5318" data-end="5391">
<p data-start="5320" data-end="5391">74% of respondents said scenario modeling is now a critical capability.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="5392" data-end="5469">
<p data-start="5394" data-end="5469">60% have built &#8220;risk-on/risk-off&#8221; models to flex with macroeconomic shifts.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="5470" data-end="5600">
<p data-start="5472" data-end="5600">48% are integrating external data (inflation rates, supply chain metrics, geopolitical risk indices) into their planning models.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p data-start="5602" data-end="5644">What are the leading teams modeling today?</p>
<ul data-start="5646" data-end="5865">
<li data-start="5646" data-end="5693">
<p data-start="5648" data-end="5693">FX volatility scenarios for global operations</p>
</li>
<li data-start="5694" data-end="5723">
<p data-start="5696" data-end="5723">Supply chain stress testing</p>
</li>
<li data-start="5724" data-end="5759">
<p data-start="5726" data-end="5759">Inflation pass-through strategies</p>
</li>
<li data-start="5760" data-end="5800">
<p data-start="5762" data-end="5800">Demand elasticity under pricing shifts</p>
</li>
<li data-start="5801" data-end="5865">
<p data-start="5803" data-end="5865">Capital allocation shifts under “risk-on/risk-off” macro views</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p data-start="5867" data-end="6024">A single plan is a death trap. Best-in-class FP&amp;A is now about optionality: having multiple, data-backed plans ready for whichever reality shows up tomorrow.</p>
<h2 data-start="6026" data-end="6063">Advice and Tips for the Modern CFO</h2>
<p data-start="6065" data-end="6246">Here’s the part where I get practical. If you’re reading this as a CFO or operator wondering, “How do I make sure my FP&amp;A function doesn’t get left behind?” — here’s my best advice.</p>
<ul data-start="6248" data-end="7291">
<li data-start="6248" data-end="6411">
<p data-start="6250" data-end="6411"><strong data-start="6250" data-end="6270">Invest in Talent</strong>: Recruit finance pros who are operators at heart. Look for strategic thinkers who understand business levers, not just accounting standards.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="6412" data-end="6554">
<p data-start="6414" data-end="6554"><strong data-start="6414" data-end="6439">Automate Aggressively</strong>: Free up human brainpower by eliminating manual, repetitive tasks. Invest in tools that deliver real-time insight.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="6555" data-end="6711">
<p data-start="6557" data-end="6711"><strong data-start="6557" data-end="6590">Demand Narrative, Not Numbers</strong>: FP&amp;A’s job is to tell the story behind the numbers. If your team can’t explain the &#8220;why&#8221; and &#8220;what’s next,&#8221; fix it now.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="6712" data-end="6829">
<p data-start="6714" data-end="6829"><strong data-start="6714" data-end="6737">Embrace Uncertainty</strong>: Build multiple scenarios, update continuously, and stay agile. Static plans are worthless.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="6830" data-end="6994">
<p data-start="6832" data-end="6994"><strong data-start="6832" data-end="6872">Marry Financial and Operational Data</strong>: Break the silos. Your FP&amp;A team should be as comfortable talking supply chain and sales KPIs as they are talking EBITDA.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="6995" data-end="7146">
<p data-start="6997" data-end="7146"><strong data-start="6997" data-end="7028">Invest in Data Architecture</strong>: A fragmented data landscape kills agility. CFOs must partner with CIOs to build robust, integrated data foundations.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="7147" data-end="7291">
<p data-start="7149" data-end="7291"><strong data-start="7149" data-end="7186">Educate Your Board on Uncertainty</strong>: Teach your board and C-suite that scenario-based planning is the new normal — not a sign of indecision.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<h2 data-start="7293" data-end="7324">What’s Next for FP&amp;A in 2026</h2>
<p data-start="7326" data-end="7409">Looking forward, here are four trends I’m watching closely — and you should be too:</p>
<ol data-start="7411" data-end="8159">
<li data-start="7411" data-end="7591">
<p data-start="7414" data-end="7591"><strong data-start="7414" data-end="7443">Generative AI in Planning</strong><br data-start="7443" data-end="7446" />Expect to see more FP&amp;A teams using gen-AI tools to build draft budget scenarios, <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">model</a> narrative outcomes, and assist with variance analysis.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="7593" data-end="7771">
<p data-start="7596" data-end="7771"><strong data-start="7596" data-end="7630">Cross-Functional Strategy Pods</strong><br data-start="7630" data-end="7633" />Leading firms are forming integrated “strategy pods” — FP&amp;A + product + operations + go-to-market — to drive real-time business pivots.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="7773" data-end="7958">
<p data-start="7776" data-end="7958"><strong data-start="7776" data-end="7822">Closer Partnership with Investor Relations</strong><br data-start="7822" data-end="7825" />FP&amp;A is moving upstream — partnering with IR to craft forward-looking narratives for the Street and anticipate investor questions.</p>
</li>
<li data-start="7960" data-end="8159">
<p data-start="7963" data-end="8159"><strong data-start="7963" data-end="8004">Dynamic Capital Allocation Frameworks</strong><br data-start="8004" data-end="8007" />Static annual capital plans are fading. Boards want CFOs to drive rolling, dynamic capital allocation — tied to scenario-driven performance triggers.</p>
</li>
</ol>
<h2 data-start="8161" data-end="8174">In Closing</h2>
<p data-start="8176" data-end="8473">Look, I get it. The transformation of FP&amp;A isn’t painless. It’s messy. It’s hard. It’s full of tough calls about people, processes, and priorities. But if you’re serious about being the kind of CFO or operator who doesn’t just survive but thrives in this next phase, you’ve got to get ahead of it.</p>
<p data-start="8475" data-end="8530">There’s a simple choice here: evolve or be left behind.</p>
<p data-start="8532" data-end="8816">The insights I’ve shared aren’t theories — they’re what’s actually happening on the ground in real finance departments today. If you found value in this breakdown, I’d appreciate you sharing it. I’m putting in the work to get you real, actionable intel — help me get it out to others.</p>
<p data-start="8818" data-end="8929">And let me leave you with this:</p>
<blockquote>
<p data-start="8818" data-end="8929">What are you doing <em data-start="8869" data-end="8876">today</em> to make sure your FP&amp;A team is ready for the future?</p>
</blockquote>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
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		<title>How a 120-Year-Old Company Unlocked Forecasting Value</title>
		<link>https://sarahgschlott.com/how-a-120-year-old-company-unlocked-forecasting-value/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=how-a-120-year-old-company-unlocked-forecasting-value</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sarah Schlott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jun 2025 03:15:06 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[FP&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Board]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cadence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision support]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance team]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast accuracy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasting value]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operators]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Process]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario planning]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sarahgschlott.com/?p=4635</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[There’s this idea floating around that forecasting is a young company’s game. Fast, agile startups pivoting on a dime. Old companies? Too slow. Too political. Too stuck in their ways. I used to believe that too. Until a friend of mine who works at a 120-year-old manufacturing company told me how they completely transformed their [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">There’s this idea floating around that forecasting is a young company’s game. Fast, agile startups pivoting on a dime. Old companies? Too slow. Too political. Too stuck in their ways.</p>
<p>I used to believe that too.</p>
<p>Until a friend of mine who works at a 120-year-old manufacturing company told me how they completely transformed their forecasting—and turned that narrative on its head. Hearing their story taught me something about where the real forecasting value comes from—and why most companies, old or new, miss it.</p>
<p>This is their story. And if you’re a CFO or operator thinking your forecasting is &#8220;good enough,&#8221; I’d take a closer look.</p>
<h2>The Setup: Complexity Hiding in Plain Sight</h2>
<p>The company made precision-engineered components. Big industrial clients. Global supply chains. Multiple product lines.</p>
<p>On paper, they had forecasting &#8220;covered&#8221;:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Monthly P&amp;L forecasts</li>
<li>Variance reports by region</li>
<li>Management reporting deck</li>
</ul>
<p>Looked fine. Except—sales kept surprising to the upside or downside. Inventory swings caught them flat-footed. <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">Cash flow</a> forecasts were off by 10-15% regularly.</p>
<p>The board was asking questions. Operators were frustrated. <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">Finance</a> was tired.</p>
<p>That’s when my friend’s team decided to change things.</p>
<h2>The Problem: The Forecast Was Too Pretty</h2>
<p>Here’s what they found:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>The <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">forecast</a> was driven by a single, consolidated model—beautifully formatted.</li>
<li>Inputs came from high-level rollups—often averages of averages (aka spreadsheet fantasy math).</li>
<li>There was little input from actual operators.</li>
<li><a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">Scenario</a> planning? Nonexistent.</li>
</ul>
<p>In short, the forecast was too pretty. It smoothed over complexity instead of surfacing it.</p>
<p>You could almost hear the board collectively nodding—right up until the numbers blew up.</p>
<p>Sound familiar?</p>
<h2>The Shift: Building Forecasting Value from the Ground Up</h2>
<p>They didn’t overhaul everything overnight. They started with mindset shifts—then tactical changes.</p>
<h3>1. Reframe Forecasting as an Operating Tool</h3>
<p>First, they had to stop treating forecasting as a Finance-owned report. They reframed it:</p>
<p><strong>Forecasting = Operating Decision Support</strong></p>
<p>That meant operators had to own inputs. And Finance had to facilitate, not dictate.</p>
<p>Or as my friend put it: “We stopped being the spreadsheet police and started being copilots.”</p>
<h3>2. De-layer the Model</h3>
<p>They decomposed the monolithic model:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Product-level drivers for Sales</li>
<li>SKU-level inventory forecasts</li>
<li>Region-specific FX and COGS <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">assumptions</a></li>
<li>Cash forecasting tied to actual receivables/payables behavior</li>
</ul>
<p>Was it messier? Yes. Was it more accurate? Absolutely.</p>
<p>And bonus: once operators saw their own assumptions reflected, they started caring. A lot.</p>
<h3>3. Implement Scenario Planning</h3>
<p>They added structured <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">scenario planning</a>:</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Scenario</th>
<th>Trigger Event</th>
<th>Key Impact Area</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Base case</td>
<td>Current operating trends</td>
<td>All financial statements</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Supply chain shock</td>
<td>Port closure or key vendor delay</td>
<td>Inventory, <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">revenue</a>, cash</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Demand spike</td>
<td>Large client order upswing</td>
<td>Production, working capital</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Now Finance and Operators had a shared language for planning.</p>
<p>As my friend put it: “No more deer-in-headlights in ops meetings.”</p>
<h3>4. Tighten the Forecasting Cadence</h3>
<p>The old cadence? Monthly, and mostly for board reporting.</p>
<p>They shifted to:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Monthly formal re-forecast</li>
<li>Bi-weekly business <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">review</a> forecasts (lighter)</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Why?</strong> In volatile markets, waiting 30 days to update your view is like driving a race car while staring in the rearview mirror.</p>
<h3>5. Align Forecasting with Business Questions</h3>
<p>They stopped asking: &#8220;Is the forecast accurate?&#8221;</p>
<p>They started asking: &#8220;What decisions does this forecast inform? And is it good enough for <em>that</em>?&#8221;</p>
<p>Examples:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Inventory build decisions for <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/top-10-principles-for-transforming-fpa-towards-long-term-value-creation/">Q4</a>?</li>
<li>Hiring plans for a new production line?</li>
<li>FX hedging levels for Europe?</li>
</ul>
<p>Forecast accuracy isn’t the goal. <strong>Decision usefulness is.</strong></p>
<h2>The Result: Forecasting Became a Competitive Weapon</h2>
<p>Here’s what changed in six months:</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Before</td>
<td>After</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Forecast variance &gt;10%</td>
<td>Forecast variance &lt;3-5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>No scenario plans</td>
<td>Three active scenarios</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Operators disengaged</td>
<td>Operators co-owning forecasts</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Forecast seen as “report”</td>
<td>Forecast used in ops reviews</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Finance reactive</td>
<td>Finance driving scenario prep</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>And the biggest win? They navigated a global supply chain shock far better than peers—because they had already modeled the scenario and knew where their exposure was.</p>
<p>Or, as my friend said after one tense board call: “We looked like we had a crystal ball. We didn’t. We had practice.”</p>
<h2>Lessons Learned: Forecasting Value Comes from the <em>Process</em>, Not Just the Model</h2>
<p>What this old company taught me:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li><strong>Forecasting value = alignment + insight + agility.</strong></li>
<li>The prettiest model in the world is useless if it’s not tied to operator reality.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">Finance team</a> that asks better questions wins.</li>
</ul>
<p>And here’s a funny analogy I use with CFOs now: Your forecast isn’t a crystal ball. It’s a flight simulator. The more you train in it, the better you handle turbulence.</p>
<h2>Why This Matters for CFOs and Operators</h2>
<p>Too many companies think they’ve &#8220;checked the forecasting box.&#8221;</p>
<p>But here’s the test:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Is your forecast built with operator input?</li>
<li>Does it inform key operating decisions?</li>
<li>Does it adapt as reality changes?</li>
<li>Can your team run scenarios fast when needed?</li>
</ul>
<p>If the answer isn’t a clear yes—you’re leaving value on the table. And in volatile markets, that’s a dangerous place to be.</p>
<h2>Forecasting Is a Muscle You Build</h2>
<p>This article took real time to write because I want more CFOs and operators to see forecasting not as an obligation, but as a competitive edge.</p>
<p>If you found value in it, please share.</p>
<p>And if you want to go deeper—whether it’s redesigning your forecasting process, building smarter models, or up-leveling your Finance team’s decision support game—I offer 1:1 consulting for Finance pros ready to level up. DM me if you want to talk.</p>
<p>And I’ll leave you with this question: <strong>If a board member asked tomorrow, “What’s the scenario plan if X happens?”—how fast could your team answer?</strong></p>
<p>If that question makes you sweat—it’s time to fix it.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
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		<title>Cash Flow Forecasting: Why 13 Weeks Isn’t Always Enough</title>
		<link>https://sarahgschlott.com/cash-flow-forecasting-why-13-weeks-isnt-always-enough/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=cash-flow-forecasting-why-13-weeks-isnt-always-enough</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sarah Schlott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 May 2025 01:04:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[FP&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[13-week forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cash Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cash position]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Covenant compliance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Liquidity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Runway visibility]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Working capital]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sarahgschlott.com/?p=4549</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Here’s the truth no one wants to admit: most 13-week cash flow forecasts are just glorified guesswork. We treat them like gospel because they’re standard. Safe. Palatable. But if you’ve ever had to explain a sudden shortfall to your CEO or board, you already know: Thirteen weeks is not a crystal ball. It’s a snapshot. [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Here’s the truth no one wants to admit: most 13-week <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">cash flow</a> forecasts are just glorified guesswork.</p>
<p>We treat them like gospel because they’re standard. Safe. Palatable. But if you’ve ever had to explain a sudden shortfall to your CEO or board, you already know:</p>
<p>Thirteen weeks is not a crystal ball. It’s a snapshot. And in volatile markets, snapshots are dangerous.</p>
<p>I’ve worked with companies that survived near-death events—missed funding rounds, supplier collapses, customer defaults. Not one of them said, “Thank God we had a 13-week <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">forecast</a>.” They said, &#8220;We were lucky we saw it coming early.&#8221;</p>
<p>That’s the difference. Seeing it coming. Acting before the cliff, not on the way down.</p>
<h3>Why 13 Weeks Became the Standard</h3>
<p>It’s clean. It’s tidy. One quarter. Fits nicely on a <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">spreadsheet</a>. And in stable environments, it’s often enough. You <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">model</a> your ins and outs, watch your working capital, and assume the rest will work itself out.</p>
<blockquote><p>But let’s be honest:</p></blockquote>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>How often is your environment truly stable?</li>
<li>Are your customers really paying like clockwork?</li>
<li>Do your vendors never change terms?</li>
</ul>
<blockquote><p>Exactly.</p></blockquote>
<h3>The Risks Hiding Behind a 13-Week Horizon</h3>
<p>The biggest issue isn’t that 13 weeks is too short. It’s that it gives teams a false sense of confidence. You stop asking harder questions:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>What happens in week 14 when that tax payment hits?</li>
<li>What if our biggest customer delays their next invoice?</li>
<li>Are we tracking covenant compliance in six months?</li>
</ul>
<p>A 13-week forecast can lull you into comfort. And comfort is a dangerous place to live when your cash position is fragile.</p>
<h3>Funny But True: It’s Like Driving Cross-Country With Only a Quarter Tank Map</h3>
<p>Imagine planning a road trip from New York to LA using only the first 50 miles of <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/top-10-principles-for-transforming-fpa-towards-long-term-value-creation/">Google</a> Maps. Sure, you’ll get out of the city. But what about the Rockies? What about gas stations? What about construction?</p>
<p>That’s what 13-week cash forecasting does. It’s enough to get you moving, not enough to keep you alive.</p>
<h3>What High-Performing Teams Do Differently</h3>
<p>I’ve seen CFOs turn cash forecasting into a real strategic asset. Here&#8217;s how:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li><strong>Layered time horizons</strong>: 13 weeks for precision, 6-12 months for visibility.</li>
<li><strong>Scenario overlays</strong>: They ask &#8220;what if we miss bookings by 20%?&#8221;</li>
<li><strong>Working capital drills</strong>: Not just watching DSO/ DPO—modeling their movement.</li>
<li><strong>Bridge to operational metrics</strong>: Tying forecasts to sales pipeline, hiring plans, capex.</li>
</ul>
<p>When done right, a cash forecast becomes a control tower, not a rearview mirror.</p>
<h3>Quick Table: Why Teams Expand Beyond 13 Weeks</h3>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Forecast Horizon</th>
<th>Use Case</th>
<th>Risk Mitigated</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>13 Weeks</td>
<td>Liquidity precision</td>
<td>Missed AP/AR movements</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>6 Months</td>
<td>Mid-term planning</td>
<td>Tax, payroll, short-term debt</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12 Months</td>
<td>Strategic <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">runway</a> visibility</td>
<td>Fundraising, covenant breach</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Multi-Year</td>
<td>Capital allocation, M&amp;A</td>
<td>Long-term growth/investments</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>How to Extend Your Forecast Without Drowning in Data</h3>
<p>Going beyond 13 weeks isn’t about building a monster spreadsheet.</p>
<blockquote><p>It’s about:</p></blockquote>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Simplifying <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">assumptions</a> as you go longer</li>
<li>Aligning categories (not every vendor matters at 12 months)</li>
<li>Linking inputs to operations (not just <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">finance</a>)</li>
<li>Automating as much as possible (tools like Cube, Mosaic, etc.)</li>
</ul>
<p>You don’t need more tabs. You need more foresight.</p>
<h3>Common Excuses, and Why They Don’t Hold Up</h3>
<p><strong>&#8220;Our business is too unpredictable.&#8221;</strong></p>
<p>That’s <em>why</em> you forecast longer. Uncertainty multiplies over time. Waiting means reacting.</p>
<p><strong>&#8220;Leadership doesn’t care beyond 13 weeks.&#8221;</strong></p>
<p>Then make them care. Show them how that new headcount plan impacts runway.</p>
<p><strong>&#8220;We don’t have the data.&#8221;</strong></p>
<p>Perfect <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">data</a> is a myth. Directionally right is better than precisely wrong.</p>
<h3>What Great CFOs Know That Others Don’t</h3>
<p>Cash forecasting isn’t just about survival. It’s about leverage. When you can see farther, you can:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Negotiate better vendor terms</li>
<li>Plan strategic hires confidently</li>
<li>Time fundraising more effectively</li>
<li>Reduce executive stress</li>
</ul>
<p>Forecasting is a trust builder.</p>
<p>When you walk into a board meeting and <em>already know</em> what’s six months out, you’re not just a finance lead—you’re a <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">strategic partner</a>.</p>
<h3>A Real Story (Without the NDA)</h3>
<p>A company I worked with had just secured a funding round. Flush with capital, they stuck to their 13-week cadence. But no one flagged the six-figure vendor escalation coming in month five. Because it wasn’t &#8220;in scope.&#8221;</p>
<p>By the time it hit, they had to scramble. Freeze hiring. Pause marketing. Explain to the board why their &#8220;fully funded&#8221; plan was already wobbling.</p>
<p>A simple 12-month model would’ve caught it. And it would’ve taken 2 hours to build.</p>
<h3>What to Do Next</h3>
<p>If your cash forecast stops at 13 weeks, ask:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>What would I do differently if I saw 6 months out?</li>
<li>Who’d I call earlier?</li>
<li>What lever would I pull today?</li>
</ul>
<p>Forecasting is optional. Running out of cash isn’t.</p>
<p>You don’t need to predict the future. But you <em>do</em> need to prepare for it.</p>
<p>Because when the road shifts—and it will—you’ll wish you packed a better map.</p>
<blockquote><p>Is your 13-week model a strategy or a seatbelt sign that never turns off?</p></blockquote>
]]></content:encoded>
					
		
		
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		<title>Scenario Planning in Uncertain Times: A Practical Framework</title>
		<link>https://sarahgschlott.com/scenario-planning-in-uncertain-times-a-practical-framework/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=scenario-planning-in-uncertain-times-a-practical-framework</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sarah Schlott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 22 May 2025 00:49:14 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[FP&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business assumptions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CFO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Executive decisions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Revenue Growth]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Runway]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stress test]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trigger points]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncertainty]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sarahgschlott.com/?p=4544</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Let’s start with a blunt truth most leaders don&#8217;t want to admit: You’re not going to predict the future. Not with that pristine forecast. Not with that 50-tab spreadsheet. Not even with your new AI-powered tool that&#8217;s supposed to &#8220;learn&#8221; the business. And that’s okay. Because scenario planning isn’t about guessing right. It’s about being [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Let’s start with a blunt truth most leaders don&#8217;t want to admit:</p>
<p>You’re not going to predict the future.</p>
<p>Not with that pristine <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">forecast</a>. Not with that 50-tab spreadsheet. Not even with your new AI-powered tool that&#8217;s supposed to &#8220;learn&#8221; the business.</p>
<p>And that’s okay.</p>
<p>Because <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">scenario</a> planning isn’t about guessing right. It’s about being ready when things go wrong—or wildly right. It’s the art of building clarity in the fog of uncertainty. Think of it less like forecasting the weather and more like packing a bag for a week in Iceland: waterproof everything and a swimsuit. Just in case.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve helped companies navigate everything from industry disruptions to interest rate shocks, and the teams that got through it intact weren’t the ones with the smartest predictions. They were the ones who stress-tested <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">assumptions</a>, got ahead of turning points, and had a plan B, C, and D ready to roll.</p>
<p>Here’s how to do that without setting your hair on fire.</p>
<h2>Step One: Start With the Truth You’re Ignoring</h2>
<p>Every scenario plan starts with a blind spot. A growth assumption you’ve stopped questioning. A supplier that’s &#8220;always reliable.&#8221; A customer base that’s &#8220;locked in.&#8221;</p>
<p>You don’t need 20 scenarios. You need three that scare you just enough to think.</p>
<h2>Step Two: Pick the Right Variables to Stress</h2>
<p>Good <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">scenario planning</a> isn’t about changing every number in your <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">model</a>. That’s just chaos with extra steps. Focus on a few critical variables:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Top-line drivers (volume, price, <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">churn</a>)</li>
<li><a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">Cost</a> levers (COGS, headcount, fixed vs. variable)</li>
<li>Capital constraints (cash <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">runway</a>, access to debt)</li>
</ul>
<p>Ask: What are the two or three assumptions that, if wrong, would break the business?</p>
<h2>Step Three: Build Clear, Comparable Scenarios</h2>
<p>Don’t build 10 snowflakes. Build three models:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Base Case: Your current plan</li>
<li>Downside: The pain scenario (10-30% <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">revenue</a> miss, delayed funding, cost inflation)</li>
<li>Upside: The opportunity scenario (breakout product, new market, unexpected tailwinds)</li>
</ul>
<p>The point isn’t the forecast. It’s understanding how decisions flex across realities.</p>
<h3>Scenario Comparison Table</h3>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Variable</th>
<th>Base Case</th>
<th>Downside</th>
<th>Upside</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Revenue Growth</td>
<td>12%</td>
<td>-10%</td>
<td>25%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Gross Margin</td>
<td>58%</td>
<td>50%</td>
<td>62%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Burn Rate</td>
<td>$450K/mo</td>
<td>$600K/mo</td>
<td>$300K/mo</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Runway</td>
<td>18 months</td>
<td>9 months</td>
<td>24 months</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2>Step Four: Identify Trigger Points</h2>
<p>This is where most <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">finance</a> teams drop the ball. It’s not just about modeling the scenarios—it’s about knowing when to pivot between them.</p>
<p>Set clear triggers:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Pipeline drops below X</li>
<li>CAC jumps above Y</li>
<li>Gross margin dips under Z</li>
</ul>
<p>When a trigger hits, you don’t panic. You execute. The decision tree is already in your hands.</p>
<h2>Step Five: Turn Scenarios Into Action Plans</h2>
<p>Each scenario should have:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>A cost response plan</li>
<li>A hiring freeze/playbook</li>
<li>A growth bet shift</li>
<li>A stakeholder communication strategy</li>
</ul>
<p>This is the difference between a model and a plan. The spreadsheet shows the numbers. The plan shows who’s doing what on day one of the downturn.</p>
<h2>Step Six: Get Cross-Functional Input</h2>
<p>If finance builds it alone, no one will follow it.</p>
<p>Bring in sales. Ops. HR. Marketing. Product. Ask them how their world changes in each scenario. Bake that back in. Make it a tool they want to use—not another spreadsheet that just &#8220;comes from finance.&#8221;</p>
<h2>Step Seven: Pressure Test With Executives</h2>
<p>A scenario plan is only as good as the leadership’s willingness to use it.</p>
<p>Sit down with the CEO. The board. The business heads.</p>
<p>Walk them through:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>The logic</li>
<li>The assumptions</li>
<li>The levers they control</li>
</ul>
<p>This isn’t about fear-mongering. It’s about credibility. You’re not crying wolf. You’re building trust.</p>
<h2>Step Eight: Revisit Monthly. Adjust Quarterly.</h2>
<p>Scenario planning isn’t a one-and-done exercise. It’s a mindset.</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Are your assumptions still holding?</li>
<li>Are your trigger thresholds still valid?</li>
<li>Is your team ready to pivot?</li>
</ul>
<p>Update fast. Don’t let inertia turn your plan into a relic.</p>
<h2>Step Nine: Translate Scenarios Into Executive Stories</h2>
<p>Numbers alone won’t drive action. You need a narrative.</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>What’s the risk?</li>
<li>What’s the upside?</li>
<li>What’s the cost of delay?</li>
</ul>
<p>Frame it like a Choose-Your-Own-Adventure for executives. Make the trade-offs visible.</p>
<h2>Step Ten: Get Over Perfection</h2>
<p>There’s no perfect model. There are only prepared people.</p>
<p>Your job isn’t to be a crystal ball. It’s to be a shock absorber. A scenario planner is the CFO’s version of a storm cellar: unused if you’re lucky, essential if you’re not.</p>
<h2>Final Word: Don’t Let Certainty Be Your Strategy</h2>
<p>The most dangerous plan is the one that assumes everything will go according to plan.</p>
<p>Scenario planning isn’t about being pessimistic. It’s about being pragmatic. In uncertain markets, it’s your edge. In volatile industries, it’s your life vest.</p>
<p>If your team can’t answer, &#8220;What happens if we miss the quarter by 20%?&#8221; without spinning into chaos, you’re not planning—you’re hoping.</p>
<p>Hope is not a strategy. But preparedness? That’s power.</p>
<p>So here’s the question: If your worst-case scenario hits tomorrow, do you know what to do next?</p>
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		<title>Rolling Forecasts vs. Budgets: What High-Performing Teams Get Right</title>
		<link>https://sarahgschlott.com/rolling-forecasts-vs-budgets-what-high-performing-teams-get-right/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=rolling-forecasts-vs-budgets-what-high-performing-teams-get-right</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sarah Schlott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 May 2025 01:54:33 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[FP&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Budgets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Business Drivers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CFOs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision-making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dynamic Planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance Teams]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rolling forecasts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic finance]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sarahgschlott.com/?p=4533</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[Let me be honest: budgets are broken. At least, the traditional kind. You know the one: twelve-months-in-advance, set-it-and-forget-it, rooted in last year’s numbers, built to please the board rather than steer the business. I’ve built those. I’ve torn them apart, too. Rolling forecasts, when done right, aren’t just a better planning tool—they’re a better way [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">Let me be honest: budgets are broken.</p>
<p>At least, the traditional kind.</p>
<p>You know the one: twelve-months-in-advance, set-it-and-forget-it, rooted in last year’s numbers, built to please the board rather than steer the business.</p>
<p>I’ve built those. I’ve torn them apart, too.</p>
<p>Rolling forecasts, when done right, aren’t just a better planning tool—they’re a better way to run a business. And the highest-performing teams I work with? They’re not wasting time arguing over <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">budget</a> variance. They’re adjusting in real time, staying ahead of the curve, and making better, faster decisions.</p>
<p>Here’s what they get right.</p>
<h2>The Core Problem with Budgets</h2>
<p>Traditional budgets are like New Year’s resolutions: optimistic, rigid, and often irrelevant by Q2.</p>
<p>They fail for one reason: the world changes faster than your <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">assumptions</a>.</p>
<p>Static budgets:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Lock teams into outdated assumptions</li>
<li>Encourage sandbagging to protect headcount</li>
<li>Prioritize compliance over curiosity</li>
<li>Penalize learning and adaptation</li>
</ul>
<p>And worst of all? They give leaders a false sense of control.</p>
<p>When I ask CFOs why they still rely on them, the answer is usually some version of: &#8220;That’s how we’ve always done it.&#8221;</p>
<p>That’s not a reason. That’s inertia.</p>
<h2>What Rolling Forecasts Actually Do</h2>
<p>Rolling forecasts shift the question from &#8220;How did we perform against last year’s target?&#8221; to &#8220;Where are we going now, and how do we make better decisions today?&#8221;</p>
<p>They:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Update regularly (monthly or quarterly)</li>
<li>Extend the planning horizon (usually 12-18 months ahead)</li>
<li>Focus on key business drivers, not just line items</li>
<li>Enable <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">scenario</a> planning and faster pivots</li>
</ul>
<p>In short, they treat the <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">forecast</a> like a living organism, not a historical artifact.</p>
<h2>Quick Comparison: Budget vs. Rolling Forecast</h2>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Feature</th>
<th>Traditional Budget</th>
<th>Rolling Forecast</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Frequency</td>
<td>Annual</td>
<td>Monthly or quarterly</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Time Horizon</td>
<td>Fixed fiscal year</td>
<td>Rolling 12-18 months</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Based On</td>
<td>Prior year + assumptions</td>
<td>Real-time <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">data</a> + drivers</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Flexibility</td>
<td>Low</td>
<td>High</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Focus</td>
<td><a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">Cost</a> control</td>
<td>Business agility</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Output</td>
<td>Fixed target</td>
<td>Dynamic scenario view</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2>What High-Performing Teams Do Differently</h2>
<p>Here’s what I’ve seen separate the best from the rest:</p>
<ol start="1" data-spread="true">
<li><strong>They stop fighting last year’s war.</strong>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Budgets are rearview mirrors. Top teams focus on what’s ahead.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><strong>They model drivers, not line items.</strong>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Instead of debating travel spend, they <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">model</a> what drives bookings, pipeline, and <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">churn</a>.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><strong>They make forecasting a habit, not a hero project.</strong>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Forecasting isn’t a quarterly panic. It’s a monthly rhythm, embedded in the business.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><strong>They involve operators.</strong>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li><a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">Finance</a> doesn’t own the forecast alone. Sales, marketing, and product all contribute.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li><strong>They tie forecasts to decisions.</strong>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Good forecasts don’t just predict. They provoke action.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ol>
<h2>Building a Forecasting Muscle</h2>
<p>Here’s how I coach finance leaders to make the shift:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li><strong>Start simple.</strong> Don’t aim for perfection. Aim for participation.</li>
<li><strong>Pick 3-5 key drivers.</strong> Not 300 line items. Focus on what moves the business.</li>
<li><strong>Use ranges, not false precision.</strong> Confidence intervals are your friend.</li>
<li><strong>Automate the mechanics.</strong> Don’t let version control kill the process.</li>
<li><strong>Tell stories, not spreadsheets.</strong> Pair data with narrative so leaders <em>feel</em> the forecast.</li>
</ul>
<h2>When to Use Budgets (Yes, There’s Still a Place)</h2>
<p>Look, I’m not anti-budget. I’m anti-blind budget.</p>
<p>Budgets still have a role:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>For setting annual compensation targets</li>
<li>For managing fixed costs and compliance</li>
<li>For communicating a baseline to the board</li>
</ul>
<p>But that’s where they stop. Use them as scaffolding, not as gospel.</p>
<h2>Final Thought: Forecasts Are How You Lead</h2>
<p>The best finance teams I’ve worked with don’t just report the numbers. They shape the future.</p>
<p>And they do it by shifting from static budgets to living forecasts. From control to clarity. From precision to progress.</p>
<p>If your budget is still running your business, it’s time to flip that relationship.</p>
<p>Because the most <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-hidden-edge-why-growing-companies-need-fpa-before-they-think-they-do/">strategic finance</a> leaders I know? They don’t follow the plan. They reshape it.</p>
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		<title>The Hidden Edge: Why Growing Companies Need FP&#038;A Before They Think They Do</title>
		<link>https://sarahgschlott.com/the-hidden-edge-why-growing-companies-need-fpa-before-they-think-they-do/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=the-hidden-edge-why-growing-companies-need-fpa-before-they-think-they-do</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sarah Schlott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2025 14:22:16 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[FP&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[burn rate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cash Flow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial planning and analysis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[growth stage companies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[headcount planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[startup finance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[strategic finance]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sarahgschlott.com/?p=4518</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I used to think we could scale our finance team with grit, hustle, and spreadsheets. And for a while, we did. Forecasts were living documents (in five tabs). We tracked cash burn on whiteboards. The budget was something I explained out loud more than I ever wrote down. Eventually, I realized that if we were [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">I used to think we could scale our <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">finance</a> team with grit, hustle, and spreadsheets.</p>
<p>And for a while, we did. Forecasts were living documents (in five tabs). We tracked cash burn on whiteboards. The <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">budget</a> was something I explained out loud more than I ever wrote down.</p>
<p>Eventually, I realized that if we were going to keep growing—fast—we needed more than duct tape and late nights.</p>
<p>So I decided to bring in the latest FP&amp;A technology. Not a cheap decision. Not a small one. But I believed it was the right call. The pitch was solid: fast implementation, seamless integrations, and reporting that would make our board swoon.</p>
<p>Implementation was supposed to take six weeks.</p>
<p>Six. <em>Months</em>. Later…</p>
<p>We were still stuck in configuration hell.</p>
<p>And when we finally turned it on, the output was so clunky my team had to rebuild the reports in <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/top-10-principles-for-transforming-fpa-towards-long-term-value-creation/">Excel</a> just to explain them to operators.</p>
<p>It was one of the most frustrating experiences of my career—and one of the most important.</p>
<p>Because it taught me two things I’ll never forget:</p>
<ol start="1" data-spread="true">
<li><strong>Spreadsheets aren’t going anywhere.</strong> They’re still the fastest, most flexible way for finance folks to explore <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">data</a>. Like it or not, they’re our native language.</li>
<li><strong>But spreadsheets can’t do everything.</strong> They’re not built for collaboration. They don’t tell the story behind the numbers. And when you’re leading FP&amp;A, that story is everything.</li>
</ol>
<p>So I stopped thinking about tech as a replacement. And started thinking about FP&amp;A as a strategic function.</p>
<p>Here’s what that looks like—and why high-growth companies need it sooner than they think.</p>
<h2>Growing Pains Come With a Price Tag</h2>
<p>When a company’s <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">scaling</a>, it’s tempting to delay bringing in FP&amp;A.</p>
<p>&#8220;We’re not ready.&#8221; &#8220;The ops team has it handled.&#8221; &#8220;We’ll hire finance after the next round.&#8221;</p>
<p>I’ve heard every version—and lived most of them.</p>
<p>But here’s what I’ve learned: the longer you wait, the more expensive it gets.</p>
<p>Missed margin targets. Blown headcount plans. Botched pricing experiments.</p>
<p>It adds up fast.</p>
<h2>The Moment You Feel Chaos? That’s When You Needed FP&amp;A Yesterday</h2>
<p>Here’s the quiet signal you’re overdue: planning starts feeling political.</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Sales wants more headcount.</li>
<li>Product wants faster velocity.</li>
<li>Marketing wants more budget.</li>
<li>Leadership wants alignment.</li>
</ul>
<p>And the spreadsheet can’t tell you what trade-offs make sense.</p>
<p>That’s where FP&amp;A earns its keep—not just crunching numbers but helping the business <em>make choices</em>.</p>
<h2>Good FP&amp;A Asks Better Questions</h2>
<p>When we started investing in FP&amp;A seriously, we stopped answering questions and started defining them.</p>
<p>Every planning cycle now starts with:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>What <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">assumptions</a> are changing?</li>
<li>What’s the real driver of our burn?</li>
<li>What happens if <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">revenue</a> misses by 10%?</li>
</ul>
<p>The model is a tool. The <em>conversation</em> is the value.</p>
<h2>Table: FP&amp;A Impact by Growth Stage</h2>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<th>Growth Stage</th>
<th>Common Problem</th>
<th>What FP&amp;A Adds</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Seed</td>
<td>Burn unknown</td>
<td>Simple forecasting + hiring map</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Series A</td>
<td>CAC inflated</td>
<td>Cohort analysis, funnel metrics</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Series B</td>
<td>Headcount misaligned</td>
<td>Org structure modeling, productivity</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Series C+</td>
<td>Scaling too fast or too slow</td>
<td><a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">Scenario</a> planning, gross margin insight</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h2>I Wish I’d Brought FP&amp;A In Sooner</h2>
<p>Honestly? We thought we were too early. But by the time we brought in our first strategic FP&amp;A hire, we were already behind:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Budgets had no ownership</li>
<li>Revenue planning was a black box</li>
<li>We were optimizing top-line while margin eroded quietly</li>
</ul>
<p>The first thing that FP&amp;A helped us do? See.</p>
<p>Really see.</p>
<p>Where we were bleeding. Where we were guessing. Where we were defaulting to historical inertia instead of data.</p>
<h2>Don’t Build the Model to Calculate—Build It to Clarify</h2>
<p>This mindset shift changed everything for us.</p>
<p>Old model: calculate <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">runway</a>, produce a board deck, cross fingers.</p>
<p>New model: clarify trade-offs, test decisions, tell a story.</p>
<p>You know you’ve hit FP&amp;A maturity when your <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/">forecast</a> isn’t a report—it’s a conversation starter.</p>
<h2>The Best FP&amp;A Teams Don’t Just Forecast—They Shape the Future</h2>
<p>Great FP&amp;A isn’t reactionary.</p>
<p>It’s proactive. It brings optionality to leadership. It closes the loop between business inputs and financial outcomes.</p>
<p>It’s not about catching mistakes. It’s about asking what’s possible.</p>
<h2>Final Thought: It’s Not Too Late. But It’s Probably Not Too Early Either.</h2>
<p>If you’re wondering whether you need FP&amp;A—you probably do.</p>
<p>Bring it in when:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>You’re planning headcount across multiple teams</li>
<li>Your board asks for scenario analysis and you panic</li>
<li>You start getting inconsistent answers about runway</li>
</ul>
<p>The longer you wait, the longer it takes to clean things up.</p>
<p>What you need isn’t a perfect model. You need a partner in finance who can help your company make better decisions, faster.</p>
<p>The tools help. But FP&amp;A is a mindset before it’s a team.</p>
<p>And that mindset? That’s the hidden edge most growing companies never realize they needed—until it’s too late.</p>
<p>If you’ve ever felt behind, or watched your team boomerang back to Excel, I see you.</p>
<p>You’re not broken. You’re just ready to lead differently.</p>
<p>Let’s make finance strategic again.</p>
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		<title>How to Make Your FP&#038;A Function a Strategic Partner, Not a Reporting Machine</title>
		<link>https://sarahgschlott.com/how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine/?utm_source=rss&#038;utm_medium=rss&#038;utm_campaign=how-to-make-your-fpa-function-a-strategic-partner-not-a-reporting-machine</link>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sarah Schlott]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 15 May 2025 02:29:01 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[FP&A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Decision-making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Finance team]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Forecast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Insights]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Model]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Operators]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scenario planning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spreadsheet]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Strategic partner]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://sarahgschlott.com/?p=4514</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[I remember the moment I realized our FP&#38;A team had become a reporting machine. It was a Tuesday. 7:43 p.m. I was still in the office. Someone from ops had just Slacked me asking for a version of the Q2 forecast that accounted for a 5% shift in headcount timing. I was on version 17 [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p data-pm-slice="1 1 []">I remember the moment I realized our FP&amp;A team had become a reporting machine.</p>
<p>It was a Tuesday. 7:43 p.m. I was still in the office. Someone from ops had just Slacked me asking for a version of the Q2 forecast that accounted for a 5% shift in headcount timing. I was on version 17 of the model. And that didn’t include the copy saved on our shared drive as “Final-Final-v3.”</p>
<p>I was exhausted. The team was frustrated. Our “strategic” insights were buried under 4 hours of <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">data</a> prep every week.</p>
<p>So I made a decision. I stopped trying to scale through brute force. Stopped saying yes to every custom ask. Stopped treating <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">finance</a> like a service function.</p>
<p>And started building FP&amp;A into what it should’ve always been: a strategic partner.</p>
<p>But here’s the thing they don’t tell you:</p>
<p>Becoming strategic isn’t about throwing the model out the window. It’s about changing what the model is <em>for</em>.</p>
<p>That shift took us from reactive to proactive, from spreadsheet jockeys to trusted operators. And it taught me a few lessons I still carry into every engagement.</p>
<h2>1. Don’t Just Build the Model—Build the Questions It Answers</h2>
<p>In the early days, our models were designed to <em>calculate</em>. Now, they’re designed to <em>clarify</em>.</p>
<p>The difference? Questions.</p>
<p>Before we touch <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/top-10-principles-for-transforming-fpa-towards-long-term-value-creation/">Excel</a>, we define the top 3-5 questions the business needs to answer this quarter:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Where’s our leverage if <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">revenue</a> underperforms?</li>
<li>What’s the break-even point by segment?</li>
<li>How long can we delay that next hire?</li>
</ul>
<p>Your model doesn’t need to be complex. It needs to be aligned. The more it’s shaped by real decisions, the more strategic your team becomes.</p>
<h2>2. Elevate the Conversation—Visually and Verbally</h2>
<p>We used to send dashboards. Now we host narrative reviews.</p>
<p>Why? Because metrics alone don’t drive alignment. Context does. Story does.</p>
<p>We learned to:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Pair every <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/top-10-principles-for-transforming-fpa-towards-long-term-value-creation/">KPI</a> with commentary</li>
<li>Use visuals to highlight inflection points</li>
<li>Lead with insights, not tables</li>
</ul>
<p>One of our <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/rolling-forecasts-vs-budgets-what-high-performing-teams-get-right/">CFOs</a> called it &#8220;boardroom-ready modeling.&#8221; Same data—better delivery.</p>
<h2>3. Model Fewer Scenarios, Better</h2>
<p>We used to build three scenarios for everything: Base, Upside, Downside.</p>
<p>Eventually we realized:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Only Base ever got updated.</li>
<li>Upside was a fantasy.</li>
<li>Downside was ignored.</li>
</ul>
<p>Now we start with one scenario—the one we believe—and <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/scenario-planning-in-uncertain-times-a-practical-framework/">stress test</a> it ruthlessly:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>What if we miss hiring targets by 30 days?</li>
<li>What if <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/the-5-most-common-mistakes-i-see-in-financial-models-and-how-to-fix-them/">churn</a> ticks up by 2%?</li>
<li>What if CAC spikes?</li>
</ul>
<p>This makes our forecasts more credible. And our conversations more useful.</p>
<h2>4. Align to Operators, Not Just Outcomes</h2>
<p>Our early models looked great to finance—and foreign to everyone else.</p>
<p>Today, we reverse engineer our models from operating levers:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Marketing: <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/implementing-zero-based-budgeting-in-fpa-a-10-step-guide/">Cost</a> per lead, conversion rates</li>
<li>Sales: Ramp time, productivity, quota</li>
<li>Product: R&amp;D headcount vs. roadmap velocity</li>
</ul>
<p>When a forecast shifts, we don’t just update numbers. We call the team driving the lever.</p>
<p>That makes FP&amp;A a translator. And that’s where strategy happens.</p>
<h2>5. Build Less, Influence More</h2>
<p>Here’s a hard truth: If your value comes from building models, <a href="https://sarahgschlott.com/mastering-ai-in-finance-building-expertise-for-a-data-driven-future/">AI</a> is coming for your job.</p>
<p>But if your value comes from shaping strategy, asking better questions, and connecting dots across the org—you&#8217;re irreplaceable.</p>
<p>We’ve shifted time away from &#8220;building&#8221; toward:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Cross-functional planning meetings</li>
<li>Monthly operator reviews</li>
<li>Real-time revenue analyses</li>
</ul>
<p>The model matters. But your ability to drive decisions? That’s what makes you a partner.</p>
<h2>What Changed for Us</h2>
<p>When we stopped being a reporting function and started showing up as a strategic voice:</p>
<ul data-spread="false">
<li>Our forecast accuracy improved</li>
<li>Our leadership team started looping us in earlier</li>
<li>Our team morale went up (less fire drill, more thinking time)</li>
</ul>
<p>We didn’t stop using Excel. We didn’t buy a magic tool. We just stopped thinking like accountants—and started thinking like operators.</p>
<p>If you’re still stuck in the report-refresh-repeat cycle, I see you. You’re not broken. You just need to redefine your role.</p>
<p>FP&amp;A isn’t about being the smartest person with the biggest spreadsheet. It’s about being the calmest person in the room when the forecast changes.</p>
<p>And that starts with deciding that finance isn’t just here to track the story. It’s here to help <em>write</em> it.</p>
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