SCENARIO MODELING

See the consequence before committing to the decision.

I build scenario and decision models for questions where management needs to understand the range of outcomes, the important assumptions and what would have to be true.


Where the work gets practical.

Operating scenarios

Base, upside and downside cases tied to the drivers management can actually influence.

Sensitivity analysis

Identify which assumptions materially change the answer and which ones mostly decorate the model.

Decision models

Frame hiring, pricing, investment, growth or cost decisions around economics rather than spreadsheet complexity.


DECISION MODELING FIELD NOTES

Useful before the decision gets expensive.

These are the pieces I would start with when management needs to understand range, risk and assumptions.

Scenario Planning

Build scenarios around decisions management can actually make.

BUILD SCENARIOS →

Review a Financial Model

Pressure-test assumptions, mechanics and outputs before relying on them.

REVIEW THE MODEL →

Driver-Based Forecasting

Connect model outcomes to the few operating drivers that matter most.

FIND THE DRIVERS →


HOW I THINK ABOUT IT

The best scenario model makes uncertainty easier to discuss.

Expose the assumptionsThe debate should be about what we believe, not where the formula lives.
Model the rangeOne precise answer can hide more uncertainty than three honest scenarios.
Watch the trigger pointsUseful scenarios tell management what signals would cause the decision to change.

Have a decision with too many moving parts?

Tell me what management is considering and which assumptions are making the answer difficult to see.

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© Copyright - Sarah Schlott