I have trust issues with scenario models. Not because I don’t like scenarios. I do. I’ve built plenty of them. I’ve also sat in meetings where we had so many scenarios that I started to suspect we were using Excel to avoid making a decision. You know the meeting I’m talking about. Base case. Upside […]
I have never understood why December 31 gets so much authority over financial planning. Apparently the calendar changes and Finance is supposed to lose interest in what happens next. It’s October. We have a three-month forecast remaining. Very useful. Management is making hiring decisions that will affect next summer, Sales is talking about deals that […]
I can usually tell when a company has confused its budget with its forecast. It’s September. The business has changed. Sales are running below plan. Hiring moved. A product launch slipped. A large customer expanded unexpectedly. Marketing changed its spending. And somehow the forecast still looks remarkably similar to the budget everyone approved nine months […]
I have a fairly simple test for a forecasting process. When the forecast changes, can anyone explain why? Not which cell changed. Not which department submitted a new number. Not that revenue is now $600,000 lower than it was three weeks ago. What changed in the business? That question sounds embarrassingly basic until you’ve sat […]
Here’s a hard truth they don’t tell you in finance onboarding: most “financial reporting” is glorified janitorial work. You know the drill. Dump the GL. Copy and paste into five different workbooks. Filter out the junk rows. Reformat dates. Fix that one column that always comes in as text instead of numbers. Then pray your […]
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